The numbers going around are wild. Somewhere between thirty five and seventy million in the first year depending on which firm you read, with one outlier well above that.
Genuine question rather than a hype post: are these worth anything? They are analysts modelling a launch nobody has data for, on a platform base that is smaller than the one V launched into. What is the actual epistemic value here?
Accepted answer
They are useful for one thing only, which is understanding what the market expects rather than what will happen. That is a real signal about pressure on the company, not about the game.
And it will presumably do the same, just spread over years rather than at launch.
Low. These are models built on assumptions about attach rate and console install base, and the spread between the lowest and highest published figure is roughly double, which tells you how much confidence to have in any of them.
The spread being that wide is the answer. If serious analysts disagree by a factor of two then none of them knows.
the smaller platform base point is the one nobody factors in. v launched on two generations at once eventually
Market expectation rather than outcome is a much better framing than mine and it makes the numbers worth reading for a completely different reason.